2020 Atlantic hurricane season (GiedriusforCat5)
NOTICE: THIS IS IN NO WAY BASED ON REAL LIFE STORMS - THE STORMS LISTED HERE ARE ENTIRELY FICTIONAL FOR THE YEAR, AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE SEASON IN THE PHYSICAL WORLD The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season was the least active Atlantic hurricane season since 1986 if counting by named storms, or 1925 if counting by ACE. The season officially began on June 1, 2020, and lasted until November 30, 2020. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most storms form in the Atlantic basin. The season had little activity, with 7 depressions, 6 of them reaching storm strength, 3 of the storms reaching hurricane strength, and one of the hurricanes reaching major hurricane strength. This led to the lowest Accumulated Cyclone Energy count since 1925. The season's activity was limited to within the bounds of the season, with the first storm forming on June 5th, and the last dissipating on October 22nd. The first depression of the season did not intensify beyond depression strength. On June 27th, the second formed and soon intensified to become the first storm, named Arthur, which made landfall in Mexico at peak intensity as a tropical storm on June 28th. Bertha formed on the 13th of July, and made landfall in Texas at peak intensity as a low end tropical storm on July 14th. The first hurricane of the season, Cristobal, formed on August 13th and peaked on August 14th while approaching the Leeward Islands, and the only major, Dolly, formed on August 29th, and peaked as it was making landfall in Florida, on August 31st. Dolly caused severe damages in several Floridian counties, and was the costliest and deadliest storm of the season. One more hurricane followed, Edouard, forming on September 15th and dissipating on the 18th in the northern Atlantic. The last storm of the season, Fay, was a short lived storm off the coast of Carolinas, forming on October 21st and dissipating on the 22nd. Seasonal forecasts In advance of, and during, each hurricane season, several forecasts of hurricane activity are issued by national meteorological services, scientific agencies, and noted hurricane experts. These include forecasters from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s National Hurricane and Climate Prediction Center, Tropical Storm Risk, the United Kingdom's Met Office, and Philip J. Klotzbach, William M. Gray and their associates at Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. According to NOAA and CSU, the average Atlantic hurricane season between 1981 and 2010 contained roughly 12 tropical storms, six hurricanes, three major hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 66–103 units. NOAA typically categorizes a season as either above-average, average, or below-average based on the cumulative ACE Index, but the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a hurricane season are considered occasionally as well. Pre-season outlooks On December 8th, 2019, TSR released their initial prediction for the season, predicting 3 named storms, 2 of them becoming hurricanes, and no major hurricanes, and an ACE index from 5 to 20, which would mean a season well below average. The low prediction was in result of an ongoing El Niño event. On April 3rd, 2020, the TSR updated their prediction to account for an apparent improvement in conditions, now predicting 5 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and one major hurricane, with an ACE index of 10 - 30, still placing the season well below average. A day later, NOAA released their prediction, predicting 10 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 majors, and overall below normal to normal activity. On April 9th, the CSU released the final pre-season prediction, anticipating 9 named storms, 2 hurricanes, and no majors. Mid-season outlooks On June 1st, CSU released their updated prediction, predicting 7 named storms, 2 hurricanes, and no majors, due to an increase in shear. TSR also released their updated prediction, anticipating 5 named storms, 1 hurricane, and no major hurricanes, with a "potentially record inactive season". The NOAA also updated their prediction, at 9 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, saying that the conditions have a high chance of improving in July - August. On the 17th of July, the UKMO made their prediction, predicting 7 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and one major, with overall normal to below normal ACE. On the 3rd of August, NOAA updated their prediction again, lowering it to 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and no major hurricanes, saying that the conditions did not improve in the slightest. The CSU updated theirs on August 12th, increasing it to 9 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and one major. The final updated prediction was issued by the TSR on August 17th, anticipating 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, stating that the conditions were likely to improve in september. Seasonal summary ImageSize = width:800 height:200 PlotArea = top:10 bottom:80 right:20 left:20 Legend = columns:3 left:30 top:58 columnwidth:270 AlignBars = early DateFormat = dd/mm/yyyy Period = from:01/06/2020 till:01/11/2020 TimeAxis = orientation:horizontal ScaleMinor = grid:black unit:month increment:1 start:01/06/2020 Colors = id:canvas value:gray(0.88) id:GP value:red id:TD value:rgb(0.38,0.73,1) legend:Tropical_Depression_=_<38_mph_(0-62_km/h) id:TS value:rgb(0,0.98,0.96) legend:Tropical_Storm_=_39-73_mph_(63-118 km/h) id:C1 value:rgb(1,1,0.80) legend:Category_1_=_74-95_mph_(119-153_km/h) id:C2 value:rgb(1,0.91,0.46) legend:Category_2_=_96-110_mph_(154-177_km/h) id:C3 value:rgb(1,0.76,0.25) legend:Category_3_=_111-129_mph_(178-208-km/h) id:C4 value:rgb(1,0.56,0.13) legend:Category_4_=_130-156_mph_(209-251_km/h) id:C5 value:rgb(1,0.38,0.38) legend:Category_5_≥_157_mph_(≥252_km/h) Backgroundcolors = canvas:canvas BarData = barset:Hurricane bar:Month PlotData= barset:Hurricane width:11 align:left fontsize:S shift:(4,-4) anchor:till from:05/06/2020 till:07/06/2020 color:TD text:One (TD) from:27/06/2020 till:29/06/2020 color:TS text:Arthur (TS) from:13/07/2020 till:14/07/2020 color:TS text:Bertha (TS) from:13/08/2020 till:15/08/2020 color:C1 text:Cristobal (C1) from:29/08/2020 till:02/09/2020 color:C3 text:Dolly (C3) from:15/09/2020 till:18/09/2020 color:C1 text:Edouard (C1) from:21/10/2020 till:22/10/2020 color:TS text:Fay (TS) bar:Month width:5 align:center fontsize:S shift:(0,-20) anchor:middle color:canvas from:01/06/2020 till:01/07/2020 text:June from:01/07/2020 till:01/08/2020 text:July from:01/08/2020 till:01/09/2020 text:August from:01/09/2020 till:01/10/2020 text:September from:01/10/2020 till:01/11/2020 text:October TextData = pos:(570,30) text:"(From the" pos:(617,30) text:"Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale)" The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1, 2020. It was the least active season since 1986 in terms of named storms, and the least active season since 1925 in terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy. Its inactivity resulted from a super El Niño, which caused unfavourable conditions in the Atlantic basin for tropical cyclone development. Most cyclones developed either in the Gulf of Mexico or the subtropics, areas which did not get affected as much by El Niño conditions. During the course of the season, 7 tropical depressions developed, 6 of them intensifying to storms, a further 3 intensifying into hurricanes, and one of the three hurricanes becoming a major hurricane. This makes the 2020 season the least active since 1986, which also had 6 storms. The season featured no off-season activity. The season's most intense storm, Dolly, formed in late August and made landfall in Florida at peak intensity as a major hurricane, the most intense storm to do so since Michael in 2018. The season's activity was reflected with a very low cumulative accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) rating of 14.185, the lowest since 1925 and one of the lowest on record, which is classified as "below normal". ACE is, broadly speaking, a measure of the power of the hurricane multiplied by the length of time it existed, so storms that last a long time, as well as particularly strong hurricanes, have high ACEs. ACE is only calculated for full advisories on tropical systems at or exceeding 34 knots (39 mph, 63 km/h) or tropical storm strength. Subtropical cyclones are excluded from the total. Systems Tropical Depression One On the fifth of June, a cold core low in the central Atlanic was given high chances of tropical cyclogenesis by the NHC and tracking of the system officially started at 00:00 UTC of the day. The system moved generally north-northwest, and at 12:00 UTC, it was determined that the system attained a warm core, and since no fronts were attached to it, it was designated as Tropical Depression One with 30 mph winds. It slowly intensified in marginally favourable conditions, but always maintained a sheared and disorganized appearance, eventually peaking at 06:00 UTC June 6th, as a 35 mph tropical depression, measured by ASCAT. After that point it started weakening as it started a northeastward turn, and degenerated to an extratropical low at 06:00 UTC June 7th as it gained a cold core and eventually a front. While the NHC still continued tracking it as it had a chance to regenerate into a subtropical system, the last advisory by the NHC was issued at 12:00 UTC June 8th, as the system had no chances of regeneration, and tracking was stopped shortly thereafter. Tropical Storm Arthur At 00:00 UTC June 27th, a tropical wave in the Caribbean was given high chances of tropical cyclogenesis and the NHC started officially tracking it, as it moved generally west. At 18:00 UTC, it was determined that the system had a well defined circulation and convection with a warm core, and it was designated as the second tropical depression of the season, just as it was making landfall in the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. After crossing over the entire Yucatán Peninsula and emerging in the Bay of Campeche just before 06:00 UTC June 28th, it started to reorganize and slowly reintensify. At 18:00 UTC, based on recon aircraft data, the tropical depression was upgraded to the first tropical storm of the season, and was given the name Arthur. It peaked 3 hours later, at 21:00 UTC, as it was making landfall in the Mexican state of Veracruz, just north of Veracruz city. After landfall, Arthur started to weaken and dissipate as it moved over the mountainous terrain of Mexico, and weakened below storm status as well as degenerated to a remnant low at 06:00 UTC June 29th, and the last advisory on the remnant system was issued at 12:00 UTC, with tracking services being terminated shortly after. At 00:00 UTC June 27th, tropical storm watches were issued for southern Quintana Roo and northern Belize as the system was predicted to get near tropical storm status, but were cancelled at 18:00 UTC as the system made landfall as a tropical depression in Quintana Roo, while new tropical storm watches were issued for Veracruz at the same time. At 06:00 UTC June 28th, the watches were upgraded to warnings, and were eventually cancelled at 00:00 UTC June 29th, as Arthur made landfall three hours earlier. Land effects from Arthur were minor as it only affected land with, at most, minimal storm force winds. Less than $10 million in damages was recorded, and only 9 fatalities were recorded, in total. Tropical Storm Bertha A low pressure area entered the Gulf of Mexico at around July 11th. It started to slowly organize as it gained in convection, and was given high chances of development by the National Hurricane Center. At 00:00 UTC July 13th, the NHC designated the system as Potential Tropical Cyclone Three when tropical storm watches were issued for Texas, from Port Arthur to Port O'Connor. At 18:00 UTC, the system was determined to have a warm core with a symmetric and well defined circulation with 35 mph winds, and thus was upgraded to a tropical depression. While the circulation was well defined, the convection was getting severely sheared. Despite that, the depression intensified and at 06:00 UTC July 14th, it was upgraded to a tropical storm and given the name Bertha. It intensified up until its peak intensity at landfall, which occured at around 08:00 UTC July 14th, on the Bolivar Peninsula. Bertha then passed directly over Houston as a tropical storm, weakening to a depression at 18:00 UTC, and becoming a remnant low at 00:00 UTC July 15th over central Texas, with tracking of the system being discontinued shortly afterwards. At 00:00 July 13th, tropical storm watches were issued for the Texas coast, from Port Arthur in the northeast to Port O'Connor in the southwest. At 18:00 UTC, the watches were upgraded to warnings because the potential tropical cyclone was now designated as a tropical depression, and all models agreed on Tropical Depression Three making landfall as a tropical storm in the warned area. At 12:00 UTC July 14th, well after Bertha made landfall, the warnings were cancelled. Overall, Bertha caused $250 million in damages and 6 deaths, mostly in Texas. The most severe of all effects from the system was rainfall, with some locations in Texas recording over 15 inches (381 mm) of rainfall accumulation, with a peak accumulation of 17.3 inches (439.42 mm) being recorded in the city of Taylor, about 30 miles (48.28 km) northeast of Austin. However, the damage was not as severe as anticipated, likely due to improved preparations after Harvey devastated the Texas coast nearly 3 years prior. Hurricane Cristobal A tropical wave emerged from western Africa on August 8th, and slowly moved across the Main Development Region, with the NHC giving it a high chance of development over the next 5 days. At 00:00 UTC August 13th, the NHC designated it as a Potential Tropical Cyclone, because it had a very high chance of formation, and tropical storm watches were issued for the northern Leeward Islands. It continued to slowly move west, and at 18:00 UTC, satellite imagery indicated a defined circulation, and it was decided to designate the system as a tropical depression. At 06:00 UTC August 14th, satellite measurements confirmed sustained winds of 45 mph, and the depression was upgraded to a storm and named Cristobal. The storm was broad and faced generally unfavourable conditions with dry air and wind shear, but continued to intensify, and at 18:00 UTC it was upgraded to the first hurricane of the season, and peaked at the same time. Quickly, it began to weaken, and by 00:00 UTC August 15th weakened to a minimal hurricane as dry air entered the system. At 06:00 UTC, it was downgraded to a tropical storm, as it seemingly fell apart due to dry air intrusion and shear. At 18:00 UTC, the NHC officially declassified it as a tropical cyclone and declared it as a remnant low, with the last advisory being issued at 00:00 UTC August 16th, by which point it did not have even storm force sustained windspeeds. In the end, the storm's worst effects on land were thunderstorms from its outer bands and remnants. Hurricane Dolly A tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on August 17th and moved westwards across the Main Development Region, generally struggling due to dry air and wind shear. It started to develop deep convection on August 25th, while moving generally west-northwest into the Bahamas, with the NHC giving it a high chance of formation in the next 5 days. Early on August 28th, it entered the Gulf of Mexico, and started to develop a circulation. At 00:00 UTC August 29th, hurricane watches were issued for the Florida Gulf Coast, from Cleartower to Panama City Beach, and accordingly, the disturbance was designated as a potential tropical cyclone. At 12:00 UTC, it was found to have a defined circulation, and was designated as a tropical depression. Tropical Depression Five continued to organize as it started a northeastern turn into the Florida Gulf coast, and at 00:00 UTC August 30th, based on recon aircraft observations, it was upgraded to a tropical storm and given the name Dolly. It quickly intensified, getting upgraded to a category 1 hurricane at 06:00 UTC, a category 2 hurricane at 12:00 UTC, and became the first major hurricane of the season as it intensified to a category 3 at 18:00 UTC. It came ashore near Steinhatchee in Taylor County of Florida, at its peak intensity, at 00:00 UTC August 31st. After landfall, it weakened as it continued to move northeast over Florida, and emerged back into the Atlantic at 09:00 UTC, just north of Jacksonville. Dolly then started to reintensify as it accelerated in a northeasterly direction, becoming a hurricane again at 06:00 UTC September 1st, and having its secondary peak intensity at 18:00 UTC, as a category 2 hurricane, located just east of Cape Hatteras. It weakened back to a category 1 hurricane at 00:00 UTC September 2nd, a tropical storm at 06:00 UTC, and finally degenerated into an extratropical cyclone at 12:00 UTC, southeast of Cape Cod, with tracking of the system being discontinued shortly afterwards. Overall, Dolly's damages are estimated at $1.5 billion, and its fatality count is 19. A large part of these damages was done in Florida, mostly in Taylor, Dixie, and Jefferson counties, all of which are located along the Gulf Coast.. Dolly's storm surge peaked at about 7 ft (2.13 m), and flooded the Census Designated Place of Steinhatchee, in Taylor County. Due to the threat of a hurricane, at 00:00 UTC August 29th, a hurricane watch was issued from Cleartower to Panama City Beach, and was upgraded to a hurricane warning at 12:00 UTC. At the same time, mandatory evacuations were issued for the coastal portions of Taylor and Dixie counties, and were eventually extended to include coastal Jefferson county. All watches and warnings in Florida were cancelled at 06:00 UTC August 31st, but by that point a tropical storm warning was in effect from Savannah, Georgia, all the way to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. The most severe storm surge outside of Florida was recorded in Cape Hatteras, at 3.7 ft (1.13 m), as the storm passed east of the island chain as a category 2. The warning was discontinued at 00:00 UTC September 2nd. Hurricane Edouard A non-tropical low pressure area was given high chances of formation in five days on September 12th, when it was located southeast of Bermuda. It moved northeast over the next couple of days, and at 00:00 UTC September 15th, the NHC started officially tracking the system and issuing advisories on it as it started moving almost due north. As organization increased, at 12:00 UTC it was found to have become a tropical depression, the sixth of the season. 6 hours later, at 18:00 UTC, satellite measurements indicated 45 mph winds, and thus the depression was upgraded to a tropical storm and given the name Edouard. It continued to intensify, and started a turn towards the northeast. After it completed the turn, at 12:00 UTC September 16th, Edouard was found to have 75 mph winds, and thus was upgraded to a minimal hurricane, the third of the season. It peaked in between advisories, at 21:00 UTC, and afterwards started weakening as conditions degraded. At 12:00 UTC September 17th, it was downgraded to a tropical storm as its eyewall nearly collapsed entirely. Slowly, the storm started an extratropical transition, and was finally classified as such at 12:00 UTC September 18th, afterwards tracking was discontinued for the system as it had no model support for regeneration. Tropical Storm Fay A non-tropical low north of the Bahamas, that originated near Bermuda, was given high chances of formation in the next two days by the NHC on October 19th. It moved generally north, and at 00:00 UTC October 21st, the system was designated as a potential tropical cyclone, near South Carolina, since tropical storm watches were issued for coastal North Carolina, from Wilmington to Cape Hatteras. At 12:00 UTC, the system was found to have a moderately defined circulation, and significant convection, and was designated as a tropical depression as it was completing a turn towards the northeast. At 00:00 UTC October 22nd, the storm attained its peak intensity as a minimal tropical storm and was named Fay. 6 hours later, at 06:00 UTC, it was found to have degenerated to a trough of low pressure, and tracking stopped shortly afterwards. Storm names The following list of names was used for named storms that formed in the North Atlantic in 2020. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2026 season. This was the same list used in the 2014 season. Retirement On April 13th, 2021, at the 43rd session of the RA IV hurricane committee, the WMO retired the name Dolly from the rotating naming lists due to the deaths and damage it caused in Florida, and it will never be used again for an Atlantic hurricane. It was replaced by Daniela for the 2026 season. Season effects This is a table of the storms and their effects in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. This table includes the storm's names, duration, peak intensity, Areas affected, damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but are still storm-related. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a wave or a low. All of the damage figures are in 2020 USD (the listed damage figure is in millions). Category:Atlantic hurricane seasons